摘 要

随着我国经济发展进入新常态，传统企业正面临产能严重过剩的问题，企业连年亏损，资金使用效率低下，这使得传统企业面临的财务风险较大，传统企业要想摆脱困境，实现企业的长久生存和可持续发展，必须对财务风险进行深入分析，采取具体可行的应对措施，使企业能够有效地防范和应对财务风险的不良影响。

本文以大东南为研究对象，在国内外学者研究的基础上，运用财务比率分析法、F分数模型对大东南的财务风险进行分析。本文按照资本运动的顺序，对大东南的筹资风险、投资风险、营运风险和收益分配风险进行分析，运用F分数模型分析大东南是否存在生存危险，从宏观、所在行业和微观三个方面分析大东南财务风险产生的原因，针对不同的财务风险给出具体的应对措施。建议大东南建立健全风险管理机制，增强风险防范意识，树立正确的风险观念。设立专门的风险管理部门来对企业的财务风险进行管理和控制。建立符合企业自身情况的风险预警机制，增强企业的风险预测能力。建议大东南合理开展筹资活动、科学制定投资决策及加强收益分配的管理等。这些措施在一定程度上有助于改善大东南的财务风险状况，有助于保障大东南的可持续发展。

关键词：财务风险；大东南；F分数模型；风险管理

Abstract

As China's economic development has entered a new normal, traditional companies are facing a serious overcapacity problem. Enterprises have suffered losses year after year, and the use of funds has been inefficient. This has made traditional companies face greater financial risks. Traditional enterprises must overcome their difficulties and realize corporate performance. For long-term survival and sustainable development, it is necessary to conduct in-depth analysis of financial risks and adopt concrete and feasible countermeasures so that enterprises can effectively prevent and respond to the adverse effects of financial risks.

In this thesis, based on the research object of Great Southeast, on the basis of the research of domestic and foreign scholars, financial risk analysis and F-score model are used to analyze the financial risk of Great Southeast. Based on the order of capital movement, this thesis carries out analysis on the financing risk, investment risk, operational risk and income distribution risk of Great Southeast, and uses the F-score model to analyze whether there is a survival risk in the Great Southeast, and analyzes the reason in the macro, the industry, and the microscopic three aspects, and provide specific responses to different financial risks. It is recommended that Great Southeast establish a sound risk management mechanism, enhance risk prevention awareness, and establish correct risk concepts. Set up a special risk management department to manage and control the company's financial risks. Establish a risk early warning mechanism that meets the company's own situation and enhance the company's risk prediction capabilities. It is suggested that Great Southeast should reasonably carry out financial activities, scientifically formulate investment decisions, strengthen the management of income distribution and so on. These measures will, to a certain extent, help improve the situation of financial risks in the Great Southeast and help ensure the sustainable development of the Great Southeast.

Key Words：Financial Risk; Great Southeast; F-score; Risk Management

目 录

摘要·····················································································································································I

Abstract···············································································································································II

第1章 导论

1.1 研究目的和研究意义·········································································································1

1.1.1研究目的···················································································································1

1.1.2研究意义···················································································································1

1.2 国内外研究现状·················································································································2

1.2.1 国内研究现状··········································································································2

1.2.2 国外研究现状··········································································································3

1.2.3 国内外研究现状评述······························································································3

1.3 研究内容和研究方法·········································································································4

1.3.1 研究内容··················································································································4

1.3.2 研究方法··················································································································4

第2章 财务风险理论基础

2.1 财务风险理论概述 ···········································································································6

2.1.1 财务风险的概念······································································································6

2.1.2 财务风险的特征······································································································6

2.1.3 财务风险的分类······································································································6

2.2 财务风险分析模型·············································································································7

2.2.1 Z分数模型···············································································································7

2.2.2 F分数模型···············································································································8

第3章 大东南财务风险及成因

3.1 大东南概况·························································································································9

3.1.1 大东南简介··············································································································9

3.1.2 大东南组织结构······································································································9

3.2 大东南主要财务风险·········································································································9

3.2.1 筹资风险················································································································10

3.2.2 投资风险················································································································13

3.2.3 营运风险················································································································14

3.2.4 收益分配风险········································································································17

3.3.5 财务困境分析········································································································17

3.3大东南财务风险成因········································································································19

3.4.1 宏观因素················································································································19

3.4.2 行业因素················································································································19

3.4.3 微观因素················································································································20

第4章 大东南财务风险应对措施

4.1 建立健全风险管理机制···································································································21

4.2 合理开展筹资活动···········································································································22

4.3科学制定投资决策············································································································22

4.4 优化企业资产经营···········································································································22

4.5 加强收益分配管理···········································································································23

第5章 研究结论与展望

5.1 研究结论···························································································································24

5.2 研究展望···························································································································24

参考文献···········································································································································25

致谢···················································································································································26

第1章 导论