摘 要

随着国际工业化大力发展,国际油价呈现上升状态,出现了持续上涨和剧烈波动形势。石油是社会发展和人类生存不可缺少的资源尤其是对于运输业及汽车产业具有关键性的影响,所以深入探究国际石油对我国汽车类投资影响的分析具有很深的意义。石油价格上涨的可以分为内在原因、长期影响因素和短期直接原因三个方面进行分析,得出的相应结果是：资源稀缺性、经济金融属性、国际战略属性等特点是影响石油价格的内在因素；资源平衡的脆弱、石油库存、美元汇率等是国际石油价格变动的长期影响因素；国际石油的投资以突发自然事件，对石油产量的预算和国家政治干预等是国际石油价格短期变化的直接原因。近年来,我国汽车工业发展十分迅速,已成为国民经济的重要组成部分,关系到众多产业发展。国际油价波动对我国汽车类产业投资股票具有很大的影响。对我国汽车类产业的影响可以通过石油产业链行业、受油价影响的相关行业内传导影响汽车市场,还可以在国民经济内传导影响汽车市场。应该通过提高石油企业的风险阀值、降低国际油价风险对我国汽车市场的传导速度、努力斩断国际油价风险对我国汽车市场的传导渠道等举措,应对国际油价给汽车市场带来不利影响。 本文将从油价波动入手分析我国近三年汽车类的股市，深入分析油价波动对我国汽车类股票投资价值。

关键词：国际油价，汽车类股票，产业结构, 投资影响 股市价值

Abstract

Since 2002, international oil prices have been rising all the way, showing dramatic rises and dramatic waves. Oil is an indispensable resource for social development and human survival. Therefore, exploring the causes of international oil price fluctuations has important practical significance for promoting world economic growth and economic stability. From the three aspects of internal motivation, long-term influencing factors, and direct short-term fluctuations, a comprehensive analysis was made to conclude that characteristics such as scarcity, financial attributes, and strategic attributes are internal causes of international oil price volatility; fragile balance between supply and demand, petroleum inventories Volatility, the US dollar exchange rate, etc. are the long-term influence factors of international oil price fluctuations; the speculation factors of international oil, as well as the expected factors of oil prices, unexpected events and political interference are the direct causes of the short-term fluctuations in international oil prices. In recent years, China's auto industry has developed rapidly and has become an important part of the national economy, affecting many industries. In today's increasingly integrated economic globalization in China, international oil price fluctuations have a great impact on many industries including the automotive industry. The international oil price risk transmission has the characteristics of fissile transmission, serial conduction, and diversity transmission, and the overall automotive industry and demand structure. Have influence. It can not only affect the automobile market through the conduction in the oil industry chain industry and the related industries affected by oil prices, but also can influence the automobile market in the national economy. China should respond to international oil prices by adversely affecting the auto market by increasing the risk threshold of oil companies, reducing the risk of international oil price transmission to China's auto market, and striving to cut off the international oil price risk to China's auto market. Many aspects of the automotive industry are closely related to oil. Therefore, fluctuations in oil prices have a direct impact on the automotive industry. At the same time, the chain reaction caused by oil price fluctuations has highlighted the problems existing in China's auto industry structure, making it imperative to adjust the automobile industry structure. This article will start with the fluctuation of oil prices, in-depth analysis of the impact of oil price fluctuations on China's auto industry investment behavior.

Keywords: oil price, automobile industry, industrial structure, investment impact

第1章绪论

1.1研究背景与研究意义

1.1.1研究背景

自从世界体系进入工业体系以来.能源资源成了发展过程中必不可少的因素.能源的利用力与能源的拥有量直接决定国家的经济发展程度尤其是原油资源。如今的世界各国大力发展工业化，对各种的资源具有很大的依赖。但石油这种化石能源，全界总储量有限且一定期限内不可再生，因此，对于那些本国原油产量有限而需求巨大的国家来说，从石油储量和出口多的国家进口石油成了填补缺口的重要途径，国际原油的价格波动也变成了经济发展过程中最受到关注的一个因素。最近的几年来，全球原油消费需求不断增加，国际原油市场环境复杂多变。除了受到新兴经济体增加、金融危机等冲击外，国际原油市场在供给方面也受到了诸如原油炼油的技术不足，作为战略资源而控制出口、自然灾害等诸多因素增加了石油价格变化的不确定性。而原油作为国际上最为重要的能源之一，其价格波动对各个产业投资具有很大的影响，随着原油的消耗日益增大，其价格也自从2002年以来一直处于上升状态.价格影响的主要因素有以下几个石油价格波动的原因很多,本文主要从内在动因、长期影响因素短期波动原因三个方面展开。

1.1.2研究意义

下面我从国际油价波动与我国汽车产量以及销售量，汽车投资股票收益率之间的关系进行了分析，用最近三年的数据分析了油价波动对我国汽车产业的影响，有助于防范市场风险。股票市场是经济的晴雨表。也就是说股价变动不仅随经济周期的变化而变化，同时也能预示经济周期的变化。实证研究显示，股价的波动超前于经济波动。往往在经济还没有走出谷底时，股价已经开始回升，这主要是由于投资者对经济周期的一致判断所引起的。通常称股市是虚拟经济，称与之相对的现实经济为实物经济，两者的关系可以说是如影随形”，彼此都能对对方有所反映。

国际原油价格变化对发展中国家股市的影响如何，这在当前学术研究中存在诸多争议，并且在一些研究中所得到的冲击效应明显不同于发达国家。在这一背景下，分析油价波动对中国这一全球最大的新兴经济体的股票的影响特点，有助于给油价冲击效应研究提供更躲的证据支持，扩展我们对国际原油价格冲击的了解。深入理解国际原油价格与我国股票市场之间的关系。研究国际原油价格波动对我国股票市场的影响无论是从国家能源战略安全，还是从资产配置和风险防范角度都有重要的现实意义。第一，深入研究国际原油价格波动，有助于促进我国石油甚至整个能源行业的可持续发展，保证我国能源战略安全。第二，用恰当的模型来测度国际原油价格变动对我国股票市场的影响，在国际原油价格发生剧烈波动时，能够为市场应对这种波动风险提供帮助，使我国股票市场能合理规避风险。第三，研究原油价格变动对我国行业股指收益率的影响能够给我国投资者进行资产配置提供一定的指导。

1.2国际油价现状