论文总字数：11764字

摘 要

在江苏省推进区域一体化发展的背景下，运用地理集中度、不一致指数和探索性空间数据分析方法，研究2011-2017年江苏省县域人口与经济的时空分布格局及其关系，得出的主要结论有：（1）江苏省人口与经济分布都呈“南高北低”格局，经济比人口分布南北差异更明显，区域内部人口、经济分布不平衡；两者分布格局变化都较小。（2）各县域人口与经济分布的不一致类型区域分异明显，经济超前型和协调发展型县域大多在苏南苏中地区，经济滞后型和经济落后型县域大多在苏北地区；苏中苏北人口与经济分布不一致状况逐步改善，但苏南经济持续超前发展，人口与经济不一致状况依然突出。（3）人口与经济分布的不一致指数存在全局空间正相关；全局Moran’s I先上升后下降，江苏省县域人口与经济分布的不一致状况由不协调状态逐渐改善。局部空间自相关分析发现不一致指数只存在高-高和低-低集聚，其分布存在明显的南北分异；苏北各县域不一致状况的联系更加紧密，而苏南各县域联系一直很紧密。

关键词：人口，经济，时空分布，不一致性，空间自相关，江苏省

Abstract：Under the background of promoting the development of regional integration in Jiangsu Province, the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of population and economy in counties of Jiangsu Province in 2011-2017 and its relationship are studied by using geographic concentration, inconsistency index and exploratory spatial data analysis methods. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The distribution pattern of population and economy in Jiangsu Province is "higher in the south and lower in the north", and the north-south difference in economic distribution is more obvious than that in population distribution. The distribution of population and economy within the region is unbalanced. The change of distribution pattern of both groups is small. (2) There are obvious regional differences in the inconsistent types of population and economic distribution among counties. Most of the counties with advanced economy or coordinated development are located in Southern and Central Jiangsu. While the counties with backward economy or backward economy are mostly located in Northern Jiangsu.The inconsistency between population and economic distribution in Central and Northern Jiangsu has gradually improved, but the economy in Southern Jiangsu has continued to advance, and the inconsistency between population and economy is still prominent.(3) The inconsistency index of population and economic distribution is positively correlated in the global space. Global Moran"s I increased first and then decreased, and the inconsistency between population and economic distribution in counties in Jiangsu Province gradually improved from uncoordinated state. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that the inconsistency index only existed high-high and low-low agglomeration, and its distribution had obvious north-south differentiation. The inconsistency of the counties in Northern Jiangsu was more closely related, while that of the counties in Southern Jiangsu was always very close.

Keywords：population, economy, spatial-temporal distribution, inconsistency, spatial autocorrelation, Jiangsu Province

目 录

1 前言 4

2 研究区域、数据来源与方法 4

2.1 研究区域 4

2.2 数据来源 4

2.3 研究方法 5

3 人口与经济的时空分布格局 7

3.1 人口时空分布格局 7

3.2 经济时空分布格局 8

4 人口与经济的时空分布关系 10

4.1 人口与经济时空分布的不一致性分析 10

4.2 人口与经济时空分布的空间自相关分析 11

5 江苏省县域人口与经济分布一致性水平提升的对策建议 13

5.1 放宽人口流动限制，促进产业结构转换 13

5.2 优先发展主导产业，培育区域经济增长极 13

5.3 搭建区域协作平台，推进区域一体化发展 13

结 论 14

参 考 文 献 15

致 谢 16

1 前言

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