供应链金融模式下中小型企业融资信用风险管理

论文总字数：27540字

摘 要

随着我国经济的迅猛发展，大量中小企业不断涌现，逐步成为国民经济快速发展的重要保障，这些企业在国民经济中所占的比重不断增加，国家政府为了进一步推进生产力的发展、社会的进步，应该大力支持中小企业的发展。目前中小企业存在的最大问题就是由于信誉等级低造成的融资困难，那么供应链金融体系就应运而生了。

本文首先分析了供应链金融的基本理论，所具有的特点等等，然后逐个深入分析了供应链金融各种融资模式的运作方式以及相应的风险成因。随后从核心企业、中小企业、供应链、质押物四个角度建立了比较全面的供应链金融信用评价指标体系。其中本文主要着眼于中小企业，秉持易于操作、易于评价、易于计算的原则，找到了10个关键的财务分析数据作为信用风险指标，通过主成分分析解决了数据间的相互干扰性，然后通过logistic回归建立起了信用风险评价模型并进行了公式验证。最后，本文从中小企业的角度对如何尽可能的规避供应链金融带来的风险提出了建议，对未来的发展进行了展望。

本文的意义在于伴随着供应链金融的运用越来越广泛，风险评价的意义就越来越重大，只有严格做好了风险防范才能充分发挥供应链金融的作用。另外，以往的文章中，中小企业作为信誉等级低的弱势群体，大家普遍关注如何避免由中小企业带来的风险。但是事实上，核心企业同样会有运营困难，存在风险，而且核心企业规模大、地位重，一旦产生问题对中小企业造成的打击是毁灭性的。所以本文也从中小企业的角度，对如何合理规避核心带来的风险提出了建议。

关键词： 供应链金融，中小企业，信用风险，主成分分析，logistic回归模型

Abstract

Nowadays, lots of small and medium-sized companies have gradually become an important pillar for the steady development of economy, the proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises in the national economy is bigger and bigger. The national government in order to further promote our productive forces and the progress of our society, should vigorously support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. The biggest problem for some small and medium-sized companies is their financing problem caused by low credit rating. Then the effective way to solve this problem is the use of supply chain finance system.

In this paper, we analyze some basic theory of supply chain finance, characteristics and so on, and then analyze the three kinds of financing model of supply chain finance and analyze their risks one by one. Then we establish a comprehensive supply chain financial credit evaluation index system from the four points of core enterprises, supply chain, pledges and small and medium-sized enterprises, . Then we focus on small and medium sized enterprises, find the 10 key analysis of financial data as an indicator of credit risk, use the logistic return to establish the credit risk evaluation model and the formula is verified. At the end of this paper, we give some suggestions on not only the core enterprise, bank, but also small enterprises to avoid the risk brought by the financial supply chain.

The significance of this article is, the meaning of risk assessment is more and more important . We can fully play the role of supply chain finance only with the strict control of risk. In addition, the previous articles only focus on how to avoid risks by small and medium-sized enterprises because of their low credibility. But, in fact, the core enterprise also has operational difficulties and risk. Because of the core enterprise’s scale, position, their business problem for small and medium-sized enterprises is a devastating blow. So this article, from the angle of the small and medium-sized enterprises, suggests how to evade the risks of core enterprise.

Keywords: supply chain finance, small and medium companies, principal component analysis, logistic regression model

目 录

摘 要

Abstract

第一章 绪论.......................................................................................................1

1.1 研究背景和意义....................................................................................1

1.2 主要研究内容........................................................................................2

1.3 主要创新与拓展....................................................................................2

1.4 研究方法和结构框架............................................................................3

第二章 文献综述...............................................................................................4

2.1 供应链金融............................................................................................4

2.2 信用风险................................................................................................5

2.3 风险评价................................................................................................5

第三章 供应链金融的相关理论研究...............................................................8

3.1 供应链金融定义....................................................................................8

3.2 供应链金融特点....................................................................................9

3.3 供应链金融组成...................................................................................10

3.4 供应链金融基本融资模式和风险分析...............................................11

第四章 基于logistic模型的中小企业信用度量分析................................17

4.1 信用指标的构建原则...........................................................................17

4.2 供应链金融信用风险指标...................................................................17

4.3 基于Logistic模型的实证模型风险分析............................................20

第五章 规避供应链金融风险的建议.............................................................28

5.1 中小企业角度.......................................................................................28

第六章 总结与展望..........................................................................................30

6.1 本文总结...............................................................................................30

6.2 未来展望...............................................................................................30

参考文献..............................................................................................................32

致谢......................................................................................................................34

1. 绪论

1.1研究背景和意义

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